《1855 American Tycoon》Chapter 14: Empty
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"Mala, can you believe it? Someone signed a contract with me, they borrowed a whole 100 tons of wheat from me and agreed to return 110 tons of wheat to me in three months! Now, in this situation, some people dare to be short. I bet in three months the price of wheat is going to go up and somebody is going to go bankrupt!" In the crowded Chicago grain futures market, a short, fat man in a gray suit was shouting to another tall, thin guy. This combination of a short, fat guy and a long, thin guy, considering the short guy's rosaceous nose and the tall guy's sunken eyes, would be great for Sancho and Don Giovanni in the theater.
"Shorting? How dare anyone short-sell these days?" The tall, thin man opened his mouth, sounding like a duck, "Do they not know how many short-selling fools have played with their eggs in the past few years? Last year ...... oh the year before last - last year no one dared to do short selling, and since four idiots went bankrupt and killed themselves the year before, there have been no more such fools. Tell me, who has become a big fool again this year?"
"You know, guess who?" The short fat man was a liar.
The tall and thin man thought about it, and then slapped his thigh: "Tommy, it must be Tommy! Of the people I recognize, the most stupid is probably him. Is that right?"
"No, although Tommy is not flexible, he is a coward. You think a coward like Tommy would dare to make such a decision?" The short fat man shook his head.
"Don't be a liar, I can't guess. Say it!"
"Well, it's no fun ...... I'll tell you what, it's Delano, Warren? Warren Delano!"
"Warren? Delano?" The tall, thin man's eyes widened, "How is that possible? He's not that kind of idiot. ...... He didn't get some inside information, did he? Well, the weather is good this year, the grain harvest will most likely be good, so the price may be real ......"
"Do not scare yourself, last year did not have a good harvest? The year before that was not a good harvest?" Humpty Dumpty asked in return, "Don't you forget Europe! Europe has been having bad harvests for a while now. And, you know, Europe has many people and few places, where they grow food is not a profitable thing, so, you see, the British, have long stopped planting, do not worry, no problem ...... And, you are afraid you do not know, that guy is why to make such a decision."
"How to make such a decision?"
"He was two small children - well, one only just 18 years old, can barely be considered an adult, and one even just 13 years old - to convince, actually and they fainted together, to do short wheat! My God, his brain must be out of order!"
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"How is that possible?!"
"Look, Warren? Look, Warren Delano is here, and, well, behind him are those two little kids."
"Come on, let's go up and say hello to this fool!"
......
Warren? Delano was walking through the Chicago Food Futures Market, the largest food market in the Americas and the first futures market in the world.
"Hey Warren, I hear you're going to go short. Would you like to sign a futures contract with me? That's $8 per ton cheaper than the current price!"
"Hey Warren, listen to this ......"
Did people keep waving at him, and Warren? Delano saw their faces full of smiles as if they had seen a large pile of gold. He knew that these people were treating him like a fool, expecting to wait for him to fall, and then like a pack of hyenas, they would kill his corpse cleanly, not even the smallest piece of bone. The smile they showed him was just the smile of the beasts to their food, and behind that smile were sharp claws and sharp teeth.
......
After meeting Warren Drano, Scotty was a man of the world. After meeting Warren Delano, Scrooge and Rockefeller originally treated it as a chance encounter and did not want to bring him into the picture. However, after that, Rockefeller had a habit that caught the adventurer's attention - Rockefeller pulled out his little book and began to record the prices of various transactions today, as well as what he learned about the estimated production of each farm.
On one side of Rockefeller's little book was what he knew about last year. Now he skillfully fills in the relevant data for today in the appropriate place. This busyness draws the attention of Warren Delano, who is standing nearby. Drano's attention. Warren? Drano's eyesight is particularly good, every time he goes out hunting, he can always find the target at a greater distance. Now, too, although standing several steps away from Rockefeller, he can still read the contents of Rockefeller's book.
Warren Delano, had some business dealings with Tuttle-Hewitt, and in the process, he met Rockefeller, the little man's intelligence and talent were also seen by him, but he did not intend to dig in, because he saw in Rockefeller's hard work, his restlessness in the status quo. "This man will not be a long time for others to do employees." This is Warren? Delano's conclusion. At that time, he noticed Rockefeller had such a small book, and this small book embodied the spirit of seriousness and left a deep impression on him. Now, seeing Rockefeller pull out the little book again, well, in fact, Rockefeller was not careless, his own back of the shoulder blocked most of the angle. It's just that Warren? Drano's height is too high, which makes he still can see Rockefeller's small book. Warren? The company's main business is to provide a wide range of products and services. God's conscience, he did not mean to look at people's business confidential, because of Warren? Delano does not think that the things on it for their own business can have much inspiration. If I had known that the content there is so important, then I would read more in advance.
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But these few glances are also very enough, in the sight of this page, Warren? On the page you see, Warren Delano saw wheat and corn acreage, estimated yields, and price comparisons for the previous two years for several locations around Chicago. Warren Delano knew that the planted area in these areas was very good. Delano knew that the acreage and production estimates for these areas had increased significantly, but had never seriously examined how much that increase was. Now glancing at the figures in Rockefeller's little book, I was almost shocked by the figure.
For any commodity, as long as there is a situation where supply is greater than demand, its price will certainly fall. Such a simple truth, Warren? Delano is naturally clear. But before that, the rising prices so that Warren? Delano unconsciously ignored the growth of supply. However, Warren? Delano does not know the situation in other regions, so the future of the price will have what kind of fluctuations, but he still feels inaccurate.
"It would be nice to know what's going on in other regions, preferably including Europe." Warren Delano thought. Delano thought, "Why don't we just talk to them, spend some money, and buy the information directly from them."
Warren Delano was a man of action. Delano is a very action-oriented person, and since the idea, he directly to Rockefeller, and they offered a price.
"I've just seen your little book with the comparison table of planting area, production, and price in the nearby areas in these years." Warren? Delano said directly to Rockefeller, "This information is very important to me, so I hope to be able to use a reasonable price to buy it from you. You know, since I have noticed the problem, even if you do not sell it to me, I can also investigate these figures through their means. But it costs something, so I'd prefer to sell the information directly from you, it's more convenient."
Rockefeller was taken aback and raised his head to look at Warren. Delano, he found in this big brown bear that looks quite a loyal face, can not see any embarrassed look.
"My eyes are very good, much better than most people." Warren? Delano seemed a little smug, "Well, John, you're not careful enough to learn that lesson, yo."
Rockefeller and Scrooge looked at each other, Warren? Delano saw the contents of these surprised them both. Scrooge noticed that Warren Delano was just a few feet away from them. Drano was only five or six meters away from them, and Rockefeller wrote small words to save paper, this brown bear's eyesight is amazing.
Since their intentions have been discovered, the continued secrecy is not meaningful. Scrooge was confident that Warren Delano would be able to collect the information himself. The information can indeed be collected by Drano himself. Perhaps it would be a better approach to simply pull this big, shameless brown bear over to do it together. At the same time, Scrooge felt that Warren? Delano's experience sees, he is in this situation in the short this looks very risky, very exciting behavior must be very interesting. And this guy is also very rich, plus the speculative business and very experienced, pull him in, and the profit can also be more.
"Warren? Mr. Delano, your proposal is very interesting, but, in fact, in addition to this data, we can also sell you some analysis of these figures, which may be more valuable. I think we can find a place to talk about it ......," said Scrooge at the end.
So Warren Drano took them to the office. Drano took them to a tavern, found a single room, and began to negotiate. At first, Warren? Delano only intended to pay a hundred dollars to buy the small book in the hands of Rockefeller. When he saw Scrooge analyze for him the information contained in the contents of the page he saw, he admitted that Scrooge's analysis of the information was worth more money. And, Scrooge their hidden intention to reveal, but also attracted his attention.
"Why don't we stop talking about money, why don't we do it in partnership? We can make more money!" Warren? Drano said.
"We've done a lot of preparation before this, and your partnering with us means you get to share in this, which is of course good for you. But for us, selling you this information directly, we can still get hundreds of dollars, and with you, we don't see that much more in the end. So why should we partner with you?" Scrooge asked.
"I'm prepared to invest $50,000 to $100,000 in food, and once I make a profit, I can give you a percentage of my earnings." Warren? Delano threw out his offer.
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